An insider’s guide to Niseko real estate trends

One of the hottest trends in Niseko is the rise of housing developments offering serviced plots, allowing for custom homes to be built later

Niseko, Japan is the gold standard for alpine real estate in Asia. Its meteoric rise in land value appreciation and solid supply-demand fundamentals have made it a benchmark for property success in the region. Although it paused briefly during COVID-19, with a reliance on domestic demand, Niseko has largely regained momentum. However, things are different this time around.

What’s changed? C9 Hotelworks conducted an on-the-ground visit to Greater Niseko’s developments and project sites, and here’s what we found:

Let’s take a step back and address the elephant in the room: construction and development costs. Post-COVID-19, costs have continued to rise sharply in Niseko. Wages for construction workers are escalating, Japan’s widespread mega-projects are consuming much of the contractors’ availability, and the distance from Sapporo-based construction companies is driving costs even higher.

Hyper-inflationary development costs have affected several large projects, putting some on hold. This is not expected to change anytime soon. Notable ongoing projects include Hotel 101, AKI in Hirafu, Hotel 1898 in Kabayama, Moxy Niseko Village, Chalet Ivy Weiss Hotel, and Nikko Style Hanazono. However, a number of large mixed-use hotel and residential projects have been delayed.

One of the hottest trends in Niseko is the rise of housing developments offering serviced plots, allowing for custom homes to be built later. A key driver of price increases is the scarcity of private onsen plots, which are rapidly disappearing due to changes in planning restrictions and dwindling supply. This shift is particularly visible in Hanazono, with projects like Hanacreek, Hanaridge, and Kaba. Strong sales have accelerated the massive Odin Hills development, with Phase 2 infrastructure already well underway.

In the Hanazono ski area, 13 ultra-luxury villa plots have been set aside, and record-setting mega-homes are expected, designed by architect Kengo Kuma and interior designer Adrian Fu. Additionally, there are golf course plots and homes being developed by Hong Kong’s PCPD Group. Hanazono is fast becoming a premium market of its own, though it still lacks restaurants and services to support its upscale homes.

In Hirafu, which has been the area’s golden child for years, development is now spreading to Kabayama (toward Kutchan) and the lower end of Lower Village near Hirafu Station and the Shibetsu River. Some of the most stunning upcoming home sites offer breathtaking views of Mt. Yotei and the river. Notable serviced plot projects include Niseko Cliffside, Niseko Golf Estate, and Ginto Hirafu (formerly Pavilions).

One ongoing issue in Hirafu is the number of older condominiums that lack air conditioning. The majority of these condos were built when Niseko was primarily a winter destination. While this is changing, questions remain about how to maintain and upgrade these properties for year-round use while relying solely on peak season rentals.

Moving to Niseko Village, the Malaysian Group YTL continues to expand through its REIT. Following the Hilton, new additions include the Ritz-Carlton and an upcoming Moxy. Further residential development is likely, although La Plume is currently on hold.

In Annupuri, scattered projects like Grand Tsuru and Annupuri Woods are moving forward, but construction on the Aman Project at nearby Moiwa has yet to begin.

Looking at demand drivers, the construction of the new KIU Academy International School in Niseko Town is expected to be completed by Q2 2025. There are also rumors of a Rugby School near Hanazono, although nothing has been formally announced yet. MnK’s EdVenture Camp has been running for four seasons and is building a two-phase residential complex with 40 beds set to open this year, and another 40 by late 2025. Swiss group Les Elfes has partnered on the project, bringing year-round international school groups to the area.

A changing geographic landscape and incoming infrastructure will undoubtedly shape Niseko’s future. All roads lead to Kutchan, and with the Shinkansen (high-speed train) set to arrive by the end of the decade, the urban rush will likely intensify. However, like much of Japan, Hokkaido is ageing, and the shrinking rural population will soon necessitate an influx of foreign workers. Developers are already considering low-cost housing projects in Kutchan, a shift from the ski areas where staff accommodations may need to relocate to areas with lower land costs.

While challenges persist in the market—especially for hotels and larger mixed-use projects due to mounting development costs—this will not change the overall direction. Niseko will likely remain a luxury boutique destination, with its exclusivity protecting it from over-tourism for the time being.

Custom homes, luxury properties, and a burgeoning culinary scene remain undervalued but have enormous potential. As Niseko continues to grow, the area’s unique blend of natural beauty and high-end real estate is attracting high-net-worth individuals and investors.

A hallmark of Niseko’s style is its ongoing ability to attract some of the world’s top architects and designers. Its alpine-themed, multi-million-dollar villas are among the finest anywhere, forming a key part of the destination’s DNA. We anticipate that the growing number of serviced plot luxury estates will stimulate demand from those looking to build their dream homes.

In closing, climate change is reshaping alpine destinations around the world, but Niseko remains in an enviable position thanks to its powder snow. Interestingly, European wine producers have begun investing in the area, with projects like Yochi and the De Montille venture, which is spearheaded by a French Burgundy producer. Niseko’s rich soil and climate offer vast potential for premium agriculture, wine, and liquor, with this sector still in its infancy but poised to become a key draw for investors.

About Bill Barnett

Bill Barnett — a globally recognised hospitality, tourism, and real estate advisor — is the founder and managing director of Asia-based C9 Hotelworks and esteemed member of the PropertyGuru Asia Property Awards (Greater Niseko) Judging Panel.

In addition to being a leading consultant, he is a frequent speaker at industry events and conferences.  With over 30 years’ experience in the Asia Pacific region, he has an extensive background in hotel operations, development, and asset management. His past employment highlights include Senior Corporate roles at international hotel chains and publically listed companies. Bill is considered to be one of the foremost industry experts in the hotel residences sector.  To date, Bill is the author of four books on travel, property, and hospitality under the titles of Slave to the Bean, Collective Swag, It Might Get Weird and Last Call.    

For more information, email: [email protected].